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Investors Fret About a Trade War, but They Aren’t Fleeing the Stock Market

Investors Fret About a Trade War, but They Aren’t Fleeing the Stock Market At a conference held by a top investment bank in Manhattan last week, attendees were asked to submit what they thought was the biggest risk to the global economy. When their concerns showed up on the conference screen, these words were the most popular: Trump, trade war and protectionism. Outside, meanwhile, the stock market was having another up day. In recent weeks, against the expectations of many on Wall Street, investors have not run for the exits as President Trump has stepped up trade brawls with China, Canada and the European Union. On Friday, when the Trump administration and China announced tit-for-tat tariffs on $50 billion of goods from each country, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index finished barely lower. The index has gained 2 percent since the end of February, when Mr. Trump began to take action on trade in earnest, and it remains up 30 percent since his election in November 2016. Why h

Onward To Stock Market Nirvana... Or Not

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Rising wedges tend to lead to declines, so ignore them. At long last, we have reached the Nirvana of consensus: the stock market is heading to new all-time highs.  Even the perma-bear camp seems to have accepted the inevitability of new all-time highs ahead: The FANG stocks are hitting new highs, the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is hitting new highs, and the laggard S&P 500 is sure to catch up to its peers, as it climbs the ladder of higher lows. Once again we've reached the Nirvana of ever-higher stock valuations. Or not.  That troublesome kid watching the naked emperor ride past in his imaginary finery keeps muttering about rising wedges. Consider the Russell Small-Cap Index (RUT): The Raging Bull of the FANG stocks, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX): The S&P 500: And the so-called "fear index," the VIX, reduced to the Nirvana of complacency and supreme confidence: The Nirvana of January - super-low VIX and an ever-rising stock market - was disrupted

Rates are on the rise, but don’t fear for the stock market — yet

If the 10-year Treasury yield rises over 3 percent and marches toward 4 percent, a level it hasn't hit in a decade, investors may then begin to alter their outlooks for the economy and the market. After all, interest rates impact the economy from every angle, affecting spending by businesses and consumers and borrowing decisions, corporate buybacks, capital investment, earnings growth and more. And of course, the stock market could be impacted. When rates are lower, bond yields look less attractive and investors are forced to look elsewhere, like the stock market, to earn a return on their money. Treasury yields closed out the week largely down across the board, with the 10-year Treasury yield lower at 2.91 percent.If the 10-year Treasury yield rises over 3 percent and marches toward 4 percent, a level it hasn't hit in a decade, investors may then begin to alter their outlooks for the economy and the market. After all, interest rates impact the economy from every angle, af

Spotify goes for gutsy direct listing on stock exchange – here are the winners and losers

Spotify goes for gutsy direct listing on stock exchange – here are the winners and losers When Spotify finally went public on the New York Stock Exchange on April 3 as SPOT, it did so in a very unconventional way. For one thing, there was none of the usual fanfare. The CEO didn’t ring the opening bell; in fact, he didn’t even show up. The media covering the event had to talk among themselves as no one from the company was available for interviews. The initial public offering (IPO) was unusual in other aspects as well. To start with, it was a direct listing, meaning that the company didn’t issue any new shares. Instead, all the existing shares were listed directly on the exchange for open trading with retail investors but with none of the typical involvement of investment banks. This approach caused some bafflement at the NYSE, as no one really knew how to price the shares. The consensus value was US$132, but after some confusion, the shares opened up around lunchtime at US$165.90,
N ot all companies start out with a clear international strategy of raising capital abroad. “Going Global” may be an option that intrigues more than a few entrepreneurs in the prospect of securing money outside of their home country. This journey usually begins with a customer order, a business opportunity or by leveraging connections overseas. Julius Csurgo Merger Law Associates Julius Csurgo